Brazil Race Hinges On Fickle Lower Middle Class

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — The political debate boiled in Lena's Salon in Rio's Cantagalo slum, as patrons argued about who should win Sunday's presidential election. The tightest and most unpredictable presidential election since Brazil's return to democracy three decades ago is now in the hands of lower middle class voters like those debating in Lena's Salon, who represent 35 percent of the electorate and remain torn about which candidate they'll back just days before the ballot. The optimism has surprised many, considering that since the June poll Brazil entered a technical recession and inflation jumped above the government's own ceiling target of 6.5 percent, despite attempts to lower it by imposing price controls on gasoline and electricity. Observers said the only explanation was Rousseff's aggressive campaign to convince voters that times are still good and that she's looking out for their economic interests, whereas Neves, long hit with charges of elitism, would care only about the rich. Eliane Cantanhede, one of Brazil's best-known political commentators who writes for the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, said Rousseff has the natural incumbent's advantage of being able to better shape the debate and control the focus of the campaign. Another ad ominously asks: "Do you remember how your life was during the opposition's government?" — referring to the economic turbulence Brazil faced when Neves' Social Democracy Party held the presidency in 1995-2003. The message that only Rousseff and the Workers' Party can secure those gains was at the heart of the debate that played out in the Cantagalo beauty salon and is being repeated across Brazil. By contrast, Neves wins over this group when he hammers at Rousseff for creating "monsters of the present" — rising prices, a stagnant economy, woeful infrastructure and accusations of widespread corruption.

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