Comment on Pioneers: Climatologists' 38-year-old paper predicted what we're seeing happen in the Arctic melt

Pioneers: Climatologists' 38-year-old paper predicted what we're seeing happen in the Arctic melt

Claire L. Parkinson’s scientific paper “Arctic sea ice decay simulated for a CO2-induced temperature rise” was published in Climate Change in 1979, the peer-reviewed journal, when it was just 2 years old. So was the Vermont native’s doctorate in geography and climatology. Parkinson’s paper, co-authored by William W. Kellogg, was pretty much ignored. What it argued, based on mathematical modeling, is that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide above preindustrial levels would make the Arctic free of ice in late summer probably sometime in the middle of the 21st century.  We now know that four-decades-old prediction was spot on, as Sabrina Shankman points out in a story in the Pulitzer-winning InsideClimate News.

 

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