Last week, Donald Trump “humbly and gratefully” accepted the Republican nomination for president, putting an end to perhaps the most unpredictable primary season in recent history. And yet, this whole time, people still tried to predict it. Last summer at Trump’s announcement and through the fall and winter, journalists called his victory “an extreme long shot,” saying he was “not a real candidate” and had “no serious chance of winning”. And people outside the news media seemed to agree.