Election Update: ‘likely Voters’ Aren’t Helping Trump Much

FiveThirtyEight’s highest traffic often comes on the day just after major events, like debates or key presidential primaries. Everyone wants to know how those events are going to move the polls. We’re sometimes happy to speculate about that, when we think the answer is obvious enough. But the problem is that there usually isn’t any data that soon, since the polls will take a few days to register any effects.In fact, it’s rare to see pollsters release results at all in the first day or two after a debate.