Pick 6: 10-win Teams In 2016 Likely To Slip Back In 2017

Alabama makes knocking out double-digit victory seasons look so easy, but for most programs, it takes a combination of good play and good fortune that can be difficult to replicate from one year to the next. Mike MacIntyre won AP coach of the year for righting a ship that had long been listing, and a major part of the turnaround was a much improved defense. Add a new starting quarterback, and it is highly unlikely the Buffs will be making a second straight appearance in the conference title game. The Wolverines were a few plays away from making the playoff in Jim Harbaugh's second season, with one of the most experienced teams in the country. Matt Rhule left for Baylor and former Florida and Mississippi State defensive coordinator Geoff Collins steps in. The core of a good offense returns, but the American Athletic Conference schedule will be difficult with cross-division games against Houston, Navy and Tulsa and a road game at league favorite USF. Coach Justin Fuente quickly revived a program that had stagnated in the final seasons of Frank Beamer's tenure, leading the Hokies to their first double-digit victory season since 2011. Virginia Tech struck gold last season with junior college transfer quarterback Jerod Evans, but he declared for the NFL. Road trips to Illinois and Vanderbilt in nonconference play are winnable and Conference USA's East Division has no obvious threats to WKU, but the personnel and coaching transition make at least a small step back seem inevitable.

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