Comment on Surprise! Round one of the French presidential election went pretty much as expected

Surprise! Round one of the French presidential election went pretty much as expected

(THE CONVERSATION) The votes are mostly counted in the first round of the French Presidential election. There are many unusual features of this first round vote, but let’s start with the fact that the French polls accurately predicted the outcome. Marine Le Pen had been on track to make the second round since the European Parliamentary elections of 2014 when her party came in first ahead of more established parties. The terrorist attacks of the last few years in France that elicited an increased collective anxiety around immigrants contributed to her momentum. [...] French and international media, spooked by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, contributed to a narrative that polls were unreliable and the outcome was up for grabs. [...] the election signaled the end of the political competitiveness of institutionalized French politics. [...] the tension between globalism and nationalism that the European Union embodies has been percolating at least since 2000 in France and beyond is finally out in the open. Intellectuals and politicians have done their best to ignore it until the last few years until 2009 when the sovereign debt crisis and the Greek austerity regime exploded on the scene. Macron and Le Pen will take the global versus nationalist conflict into the public sphere. Both Macron and Le Pen, the outsider candidates, are charismatic figures with prodigious amounts of political talent.

 

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