Things are not going well for Donald Trump’s campaign, as FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows. In the space of a single day (Tuesday), we published articles saying multiple top pollsters expect him to lose the election, that Hillary Clinton might try to play for a landslide, and that Trump might even lose Texas.And yet, as of midday on Monday, the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast model still showed that Trump had a 11.4 percent chance of winning.