Thanks to big shifts in several key races, Democrats now have a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast, and a 72 percent chance according to polls-only. Both those numbers are up by more than 15 percentage points from last week, when the polls-plus model gave them a 56 percent chance and the polls-only model 54 percent.In our last Senate Update, I noted a growing divergence between our Senate and presidential forecasts.

NEXT
Topics:  update   gop but   white   house   democratic marginchance of   winningraceoct   carolina-1.6-0.7+0.939.044.3+5.3pennsylvania+0.5+0.9+0.452.856.3+3.5indiana+7.5+6.4-1.182.382.5+0.2how   oct 20the   jason kander   republican sen roy blunt   u.s    claire mccaskill   mitt romney   kander s   democrat maggie hassan s   september   university   republican sen kelly ayotte   sen harry reid s   catherine cortez masto   republican joe heck   oct   clinton s   trump   republican dean heller   katie mcginty   republican pat toomey   republican richard burr s   deborah ross   illinois   bayh   senate   democrat   clinton   wisconsin   hampshire   north carolina   pennsylvania   oct    indiana   missouri   nevada   kander   republican   cortez masto   berkley   week   majority   races   chances   polls-only   percentage   model   advantage   big   presidential   year   favored   average   states   poll   percent   state   control   key   shifted   point   small   close   forecast   polls   remember   slight   forecasts   growing   history   contests   leads   doesn   led   wins   time   polls-plus   fivethirtyeight   slightly   polling   
BING NEWS:
  • Young Democrats warn Biden he must quickly change course
    Young Democratic voters are sounding the alarm and warning President Biden that his reelection bid could be in jeopardy if he doesn’t change course on the issues that matter most to ...
    05/3/2024 - 7:18 am | View Link
  • The Democrats Have Turned on Dr. King. It's Time to Return the Favor | Excerpt
    As we sat on the bus traveling through Alabama, John Lewis and some of his fellow Freedom Riders shared firsthand accounts of what they experienced.
    05/1/2024 - 3:18 pm | View Link
  • Election Updates: Praising police, Trump calls crackdown at Columbia a ‘beautiful thing to watch.’
    Former President Donald J. Trump will return to the campaign trail today, with stops in Wisconsin and Michigan, his first major events in battleground states since the beginning of his felony criminal ...
    05/1/2024 - 11:44 am | View Link
  • Arizona's Democratic leaders get enough votes to repeal 19th century abortion ban
    Democrats in the Arizona Legislature made a final push Wednesday to repeal the state’s long-dormant ban on nearly all abortions, which a court said can be enforced.
    05/1/2024 - 7:44 am | View Link
  • Conservatives continue to out-fundraise all other federal parties
    The Opposition Conservatives continue to out-fundraise other federal parties, bringing in millions more than all the others combined in the first three months of the year.
    05/1/2024 - 5:59 am | View Link
  • More

 

NEXT