What you want to watch is the momentum as we draw closer to the election, because the candidates who are gaining almost invariably win. Me, I lean heavily on one other historical electoral indicator: When ordinary people bring up politics, it's gonna be a change year -- and last week, my haircutter was talking about getting her entire family out to vote: Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control.