When European governments began to end harsh coronavirus lockdowns in May and June, officials stressed that they would only keep easing measures so long as new infection numbers remained low. But daily case numbers in several western European countries have begun to tick upward again. On Thursday France and Germany both recorded their highest daily number of new cases in three months, and infections are increasing fast in Spain and the Netherlands too, among others. Public health experts poring over the data are now warning that Europe could be on the brink of a second wave of COVID-19—unless governments keep their promises to sharpen rules when infections begin to spike. Many European governments are now deploying a new strategy to contain the virus: imposing localized restrictions in specific areas where there are outbreaks, in an effort to avoid a return to the large-scale national lockdowns that devastated their economies in the spring. But, as people have again begun to socialize with friends after spending difficult months isolated indoors, experts are also worried that social distancing fatigue could be setting in, making it harder to convince people to follow any new restrictions, and making new outbreaks potentially more dangerous. “Any time you release lockdown measures and people start to interact more, you will start to see new cases again,” says Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases at King’s College London.

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